Good Decisions: Method, Not Chance

The standard

An explicit decision model makes the goals, uncertainties, and consequences of a choice visible before it is tested against verifiable criteria. Without this disclosure, a decision remains unfounded, even if it turned out right by chance.

Criteria

• The goal of the decision is fixed before options are evaluated
• Uncertainties are named, not silently passed over
• The evaluation criteria are set before the choice, not afterward
• The outcome is checked against the original goal, not against the result alone

Distinction

Good decision ≠ perfect outcome: a correct result does not retroactively make an unfounded choice methodical. Good decision ≠ fast decision: speed replaces none of the checks an explicit decision model requires. Without these checks, chance is not separated from method.